Canada Countering Collapse in US Oil Imports From OPEC

Canada Countering Collapse in US Oil Imports From OPEC
With US oil production up 150 percent since 2008, the great American shale boom has collapsed imports from OPEC.

With U.S. crude oil production up 150 percent to 12.4 million b/d since 2008, the great American shale boom has collapsed imports from OPEC. In 2018, OPEC met less than 15 percent of total U.S. oil demand, down from over 30 percent in 2007. Overall, U.S. imports from OPEC have sunk to their lowest levels since 1986. In particular, U.S. imports from Nigeria, a longtime supplier that has major production problems and inconveniently sells the lighter type of crude that has been overflowing from America’s shale fields, has fallen 85 percent to 190,000 b/d. Imports from Saudi Arabia are down over 70 percent, although it still accounts for a third of the 1.4 million b/d that OPEC ships to the U.S. per the latest EIA data.

The loss of OPEC oil in the U.S. market has really come from a triad of factors: surging U.S. crude production, Saudi Arabia’s production cuts, and strong U.S. sanctions on Venezuela. In addition, the fall reflects a broader trend of OPEC understandably trying to shift sales to the fast-growing Asian markets. Since 2008, for instance, China and India have accounted for 60 percent of the 13.4 million b/d increase in global oil demand. And these two giants will lead the non-OECD Asian nations that the EIA projects will account for 75 percent of the 20 million b/d in new global demand through 2050, as far out as the EIA currently models.

For the U.S., the reduction in imports from OPEC is widely viewed as an upgrade for energy security. Ever since the skyrocketing prices and long lines at gasoline stations caused by the OPEC oil embargo in the early-1970s, the U.S. has long sought to cut its dependence on such distant foreign oil. Moreover, more domestic crude and less need for OPEC has allowed the U.S. to put sanctions on the rogue leadership in the major producers Venezuela and Iran without spiking prices. Together, these sanctioned two are responsible for 6-8 percent of global supply, and all the while prices have remained “lower for longer.”

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Source: EIA

Importantly, however, despite a declining need for Middle Eastern oil, the U.S. must still remain concerned about Iran’s threats on the critical Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. Some 20 percent of the world’s consumed oil passes through the Strait every day. Oil is the ultimate global commodity where prices around the world are inevitably linked, so an incident in that part of the world could still increase prices here in the U.S. Particularly with the U.S. oil export business set to soar to even greater heights, this global reality of oil interdependence explains why the U.S. would be better served to realistically seek to improve its energy security via more self-sufficiency rather than chasing “energy independence.”

Indeed, with its heavier oil a match for the U.S. refining system, largest trading partner and firm ally Canada has filled in nicely for the fall of OPEC. In the shale-era since 2008, Canadian oil exports to the U.S. have almost doubled to 4.7 million b/d. Over the past four years, Canada alone has shipped more oil to the U.S. than all OPEC nations combined. Canada now meets nearly 25 percent of total U.S. oil demand, more than double its share from a decade ago. Canadian oil has benefitted the U.S. by compensating for the falling heavy oil production in longtime suppliers Mexico and Venezuela. It has been neighbor Canada that has helped supply those parts of the U.S. that are too distant to take-in the huge amounts of shale oil coming from Texas and North Dakota. The key exception here is California, where sea-borne shipments from Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, and Colombia have come to replace Canada and dominate the market. 

OPEC supply to the U.S. peaked just over a decade ago. In the still emerging shale-era, Texas alone will soon pump more crude than any other OPEC member except Saudi Arabia. Looking forward, it will be more interesting to see how the U.S.-Canadian oil partnership evolves. EIA has Canada accounting for 25 percent of the world’s incremental crude supply in the decades ahead. Canadian producers over the longer-term clearly need access to high-paying Asian customers. The problem remains, however, constructing the export infrastructure along the Western coast.



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JR Pisula  |  October 24, 2019
God Bless America! Great to have our ally to the north to help keep our economic system running at a high-tuned level.


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